2025 has been fascinating to watch through a macro lens. The Trump administration is seeking to reshape policy in ways that will reverberate for years to come. Trading relationships, defense priorities, tariffs, fiscal policy, monetary policy, immigration policy and the regulatory landscape are all on the table. Many of these directly impact the markets in which we operate. Last quarter started in the messiest of fashions, ‘Liberation Day’ setting tariffs based on trade deficits rocked the stock market and was swiftly paused in favor of ‘The Art of the Deal’ over the next few months. Stocks recovered, the contours of deals started to take shape and soon we had the One Big Beautiful Bill signed. Tax cuts were extended and investment tax credits were increased. Deficit arguments abound, most of which read like political talking points dressed up as economics. Are we talking about baselines vs current law or current year? Counting tariff revenue? Are we ascribing a growth multiplier? Our take on the macro aggregate is that deficits are not getting materially and hastily slashed so the accounting identity that public deficits become private profits still holds and growth is OK. Under the surface though there are some big changes in the composition of spending, especially when coupled with the new AI Action Plan. There is a broader discussion to be had on the role of the government in setting industrial policy and picking winners that is best saved for a glass of wine. However, they aren’t kidding calling it a ‘Big’ bill (‘Beautiful’ may be a stretch) but take the time to go through it, the answers to the test are in there. Money for defense and a desire to lead in AI.