Ask any self-respecting trend follower what kind of market environment favors their strategy, and you’ll get the usual suspects: volatility, uncertainty, macro and geopolitical stress, inflation, deflation, recession. But here’s the thing—those are just the conditions. The real driver? Signal versus noise. Trend needs signal.

In 2022, the signal was deafening: inflation fears, war in Ukraine, and ultimately, realized inflation. Since 2023? More like a symphony of noise. Just look at U.S. rates: 10-year yields dipped below 3.5% in April ’23 on recession fears… then hit 5% by October on “higher for longer.” They slid below 4% in Jan ’24 (soft landing), bounced to 4.5% by April (higher for longer again), dipped back under 4% in September (post-Yen carry unwind, recession vibes), then shot above 4.5% in Jan ’25 (pre-inauguration pro-growth Trump trade), and—you guessed it—dropped back under 4% in April (DOGE, tariffs, not pro-growth but outright recessionary).

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